Opportunity Maps: How Regional Labor Markets Shape Mid-Skilled Career Trajectories Across U.S. Metros

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that, this decade, roughly 60% of jobs will not require applicants to have an associate’s, bachelor’s or graduate degree — an evolution that is not accidental, but rather the result of several shifts within the U.S. labor market.

Among a variety of driving factors, the mounting cost of college education is the most obvious incentive for young people to take alternative paths that would allow them to avoid acquiring crippling debt.

Given the context of recent generations looking for ways to break from a heavily encumbered status quo, we conducted an analysis that aimed to understand and classify the various U.S. labor environments with particular focus on the opportunities they each present for mid-skill worker career advancement.

The Mechanics of Mobility

Granted, there remains a gap between corporate policy that aims to prioritize relevant skills and experience over academic credentials and actual hiring practices. Yet, the viability of these alternative career pathways is heavily dependent on geography: Because industry clusters, corporate density, and local economic policies vary drastically across the country, a mid-skilled worker’s prospects look entirely different depending on their location.

For example, in some metropolitan areas, booming infrastructure and manufacturing sectors naturally fast-track workers into high-paying roles, whereas, in others, a heavy reliance on public sector roles leads to higher barriers of entry and less job-to-job mobility in exchange for stability and predictability.

With all of that in mind and in order to draw specific metro area profiles, we looked at several indicators that we feel relevantly differentiate the various labor markets across the United States (see the methodology section for a detailed breakdown of each).

Then, by cross-referencing these metrics, we profiled four distinct labor market archetypes. These categories help us understand whether a metro offers a steady climb, a stagnant floor or a high-speed treadmill. The following table summarizes the main characteristics of each category:

Mapping out the results of our analysis showed a sort of regional alignment between fortresses and institutional hubs, as well as churn engines and ladder type labor markets:

Of course, these archetypes only provide a starting point in discussing the various particularities of each metropolitan area included in this study, and any deviations from the broader pattern or details that can add more context will be highlighted where needed. Continue reading for a breakdown of each archetype and highlights about the entries that best suit each description.

Riverside

Metros that fit this category feature a high mid-skill employment share, low job-to-job flow and a steady increase of the median wage for mid-skill workers throughout a 10-year period. However, they’re also characterized by a significant portion of their mid-skill labor force being employed in less financially lucrative roles.

In this case, Riverside, Calif., is among the nation’s top five metros for mid-skill employment (40% of total employees), largely driven by its status as a global logistics and warehousing nexus (home to massive Amazon, UPS and FedEx hubs).

In terms of earning prospects, Riverside has witnessed above-average wage increases for mid-skill jobs between 2014 and 2024 as yearly median salaries for these professionals jumped from $40,977 to $52,271.

That said, it’s important to note that, while the percentage of high-earning mid-skill jobs in Riverside is slightly above average at 46%, only about 35% of workers in mid-skill jobs earn above the median wage. This means that although there is a variety in the types of mid-skill jobs that pay well, these only employ a small number of people per category. More modestly paid occupations — such as warehousing or retail — provide mass employment for the mid-skilled workforce.

Plus, when we factor in the below-average job-to-job flow rate (11%), the “locked in” nature of the labor force in the Riverside metro area becomes even more evident. On the one hand, the top employers of mid-skill workers in the area tend to be a handful of massive logistics and distribution companies, rather than a wide range of businesses, which limits the possible destinations for job-hoppers. On the other hand, wages are competitive enough to address rising housing and living costs and disincentivize talent from commuting to Los Angeles or San Diego for a slight pay bump. For comparison, annual median earnings for mid-skill jobs in those other two southern California metro areas are only $2,735 and $4,181 higher than they are in Riverside.

Los Angeles

In Los Angeles, just more than half of all mid-skill career titles offer a pathway to above-median earnings, signaling a very high degree of occupational variety. However, the fact that only 37% of workers are in these well-paying roles suggests that LA’s mid-skill economy is composed of specialized pockets of high-value work in sectors such as aerospace or entertainment, while the bulk of the employment remains in lower-paid tiers.

While job mobility rates are higher here than they are in Riverside, they nevertheless remain 40 basis points below the 18% average across the metro areas with more than 1 million residents that we analyzed. Even so, the pay-off for switching jobs across the mid-skill category in Los Angeles is one of the best with workers on the lower end of the educational attainment scale averaging 9% to 10% wage increases upon taking on a new role.

Overall, median wage growth for mid-skill jobs totaled 33% in a 10-year period, going from $41,249 in 2014 to $55,024 by 2024.

Basically, for the average mid-skilled worker, LA provides a high potential, but restricted-access labor market as many of the higher-earning occupations have relatively high barriers of entry.

Sacramento & Minneapolis

While they still fit the model of a “fortress” labor market, Minneapolis and Sacramento, Calif., diverge from the previous two examples with their lower-than-average earnings for mid-skill professionals.

In Sacramento, this is because a share of the 46% of the mid-skill jobs across the metro area are in public administration, health care support and education. These sectors provide a lot of stability and have high barriers to entry, which explains the low, 11% job-to-job flow rate. But, at the same time, they also have wage structures that are heavily reliant on fixed budgets, rather than labor market competition. Hence, only 36% of professionals employed in mid-skill occupations earn more than the local $58,576 median wage.

Minneapolis is another interesting case. Here, roughly half of the mid-skill jobs available in the area provide earnings that are above the local median salary. However, only 39% of mid-skill workers in Minneapolis are employed in roles that earn more than $55,795.

Overall, while the cost-of-living advantage is no longer quite as marked in non-coastal cities as it was a few years ago, it remains an important factor in keeping wages lower than in places like Los Angeles or Riverside, Calif., where a higher salary becomes imperative to retain and maintain a qualified workforce within a reasonable commuting distance.

Phoenix

The high job-to-job flow in Phoenix signals a very different economic model — one defined by rapid expansion, low barriers to entry and high replaceability.

Consequently, mid-skill workers in industries such as construction, hospitality or general services frequently jump between similar roles, which creates plenty of movement in the labor market (27% job-to-job flow rate). But, from an employee point of view, it often ends up being a sideways step in terms of pay.

Indeed, precisely because there’s a constant supply of new labor, employers don’t feel the same pressure to pay a massive “retention premium” as they do in a more specialized metro area like Riverside, Calif. Furthermore, Phoenix firms also benefit from the fact that they don’t need to compete with another neighboring major hub (as is the case in southern California).

As of 2024, the median wage for a mid-skilled worker in Phoenix stood at $52,035 per year with roughly 36% of employees in this category boasting incomes above that threshold. Additionally, wage growth during a 10-year period has been above average (38%) and ranked sixth across the list of metro areas included in the analysis, ahead of all California entries.

Las Vegas

Las Vegas is arguably one of the most extreme cases of “churn engines” on the list with the highest job-to-job flow rate (29%). For reference, the average rate for metro areas in our analysis (population above 1 million residents) is 18%.

In Sin City, 52% of mid-skill jobs pay above the median wage with 41% of workers employed in these high-paying roles.

However, looking at the bigger picture, income growth for mid-skill jobs in Las Vegas has been below average (26%, compared to the 32% average across the list). Starting from $37,941 in 2014, the median salary for mid-skilled workers reached $47,880 per year in 2024. That makes it the second-lowest median wage for workers in this category among the 36 metro areas we looked at. San Antonio claimed the lowest mark with $45,831.

Atlanta & Dallas

In Atlanta and Dallas, the high job-to-job flow rates — 27% and 23%, respectively — are driven by massive, sprawling logistics and service sectors.

Namely, American Airlines, Southwest and Lockheed Martin present the Dallas labor force with several high-paying, mid-skill jobs in roles such as avionics technicians or specialized mechanics. Meanwhile, Atlanta — given its status as a regional corporate hub and a high-profile entertainment industry destination — can offer highly lucrative, highly specialized mid-level positions.

For median wage growth for mid-level jobs across a 10-year period, Atlanta has the edge, although the current averages across the two cities are close. Following a 33% increase, salaries for these workers in Atlanta went from $37,799 in 2014 to $50,407 in 2024, whereas, in Dallas, a 29% jump brought the median wage for mid-skill employees from $38,934 to $50,078.

Miami

Unlike “fortress” cities — such as Riverside, Calif., or Minneapolis, which protect or “lock-in” a specialized workforce — or the “churn engines” of Phoenix and Las Vegas, which process volume, a “ladder” metro area like Miami offers plenty of opportunities for upward movement.

As high finance, health care and tech moved into south Florida, they raised the ceiling for support roles. Now, Miami’s mid-skill labor force is no longer as heavily reliant on the tourism sector for employment.

Indeed, among the metropolitan areas that made our ranking, Miami has one of the lowest gaps between the share of mid-level roles that provide higher-than-average pay (41%) and actual percentage of people employed in those types of jobs (35%).

The metro area also boasts the third-highest increase in median earnings for workers in this category across the decade: In 2014, mid-skill employees averaged $36,403 per year, which is on the lower side compared to other U.S. metros. Then, by 2024, the median income grew by 39% to $50,499 per year.

So, the average job-to-job flow (17%), coupled with above-average wage increases when mid-skill workers at various education levels do decide to switch jobs, suggests that Miami provides real career advancement opportunities for these workers by actively increasing the value of the people who stay.

Orlando & Austin

Both Orlando, Fla., and Austin, Texas, have below-average job-to-job flow rates (15%), along with above-average wage growth for mid-level wages between 2014 and 2024. In  Orlando, a 38% hike brought the median salary for mid-skill jobs to $47,885 per year, while Austin’s reached $50,886 per year following a 34% increase.

The extremely tight gap between mid-skill positions that provide above-median wages (43%) and actual employment for these positions (40%) makes Austin a highly efficient market for matching mid-skill workers with the most well-paid job openings. Similar to Orlando, advanced manufacturing and defense sector employers (like Tesla, Samsung and BAE Systems), are the ones driving demand for these kinds of jobs, and the local community college and university pipeline is intentionally designed to nurture the talent needed for these sectors.

The difference in high-paying mid-skill jobs in Orlando (42%) compared to the share of mid-skill workers employed in those jobs (37%) is also very similar to Miami. Of course, large employers such as Disney and Universal play an important role in the local labor market here. Moreover, these organizations rely on internal promotion and training that allows workers to get ahead without having to switch employers, which also explains the moderate job-to-job flow rates. At the same time, Orlando is also a global leader in Modeling, Simulation and Training, so the aviation sector creates demand for specialized technicians and simulation operators with above-average salaries.

New York; Washington, D.C.; San Francisco; & Chicago

Metros that fit this category (New York, Washington, D.C., Chicago and San Francisco) are home to several massive organizations—universities, government agencies, global banks, and legacy healthcare systems—that require specialized support staff to keep their complex operations running. These labor markets can come across as somewhat resembling a walled garden: they have high barriers of entry (due to licensing or credentials required), modest wage growth but offer increased stability and benefits.

For example, academic and medical research centers — such as Kaiser Permanente and UCSF in San Francisco, as well as Northwestern Medicine in Chicago — require mid-skilled professionals to manage patient data, compliance and scheduling for massive clinical trials. Likewise, the federal government and defense contractors in Washington, D.C. rely on mid-skilled workers with specialized certifications to act as cybersecurity support technicians.

Among these four metros, New York and San Francisco have below average job-to-job flow rates (when compared to U.S. metros with more than 1 million residents included in our analysis), while Chicago and Washington, D.C. are more dynamic in that regard.

In New York, job-to-job flow rates stand at 15%, which is below the average among the metro areas in our analysis. Here, the high cost of living can add extra pressure and risk to job transitions. Coupled with the fact that large employers like NYU or Goldman Sachs tend to offer benefit packages — such as childcare, pensions and comprehensive health — as well as union protection or tenure stability, mid-skilled workers often think twice about the pros and cons of a move.

Reinforcing this image of the walled garden, these hubs also display significant differences between the percentage of high-paying, mid-skill positions and employment share in those roles. For instance, New York City boasts the highest share of mid-skill jobs that pay above median wage (54%), but employment in this high-earning bracket stands at 42%. On the opposite coast, the opportunity gap is even wider in San Francisco (13% difference).

These metropolitan areas are also defined by relatively modest wage growth across the surveyed period. As an example, the largest increase in earnings for mid-skill employees in this group took place in Chicago, where the median salary for these workers reached $54,793 in 2024, following a 31% hike. Finally, a 25% jump brought the median wage for mid-skill jobs in San Francisco to $65,212 per year, while New York’s 22% growth resulted in a yearly $58,038.

Methodology

For the purposes of this study, we compiled a list of all metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with more than 1 million residents, which we then graded for indicators listed below. Averages were then set for each metric and an MSA’s position relative to it was used to determine the labor market archetype that best describes its characteristics.

“% Change in median wages for mid-skilled workers” refers to the relative difference in each metropolitan area’s median salaries for mid-skilled workers (defined as people with a high school diploma; associate’s degree or some college; or no degree) between 2014 and 2024. Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

“Mid-skill employment %” represents the proportion of mid-skilled employees across each metropolitan area’s total employment, based on the latest available Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The values represent 2024 percentages.

“Mid-skill occupations with above-median income” refers to the percentage of mid-skill level job titles that offer wages higher than the metropolitan area’s median. Based on the latest available Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The values represent 2024 percentages.

“Mid-skill employment with above-median income” is the percentage of mid-skilled employees earning wages that are higher than the metropolitan area’s median. Based on the latest available Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The values represent 2024 percentages.

“Job-to-job flow rate” illustrates the percentage of employed mid-skilled workers who move to a new employer from one quarter to the next without a significant gap in employment (unemployment). It serves as a key indicator of labor market tightness and worker bargaining power, reflecting how often employees voluntarily switch jobs to seek higher wages or better conditions. Based on the latest available U.S. Census Bureau data. The values represent 2023 percentages.

“Job-to-job flow rate across various educational attainment levels” is a customized version of the previous indicator, highlighting differences in outcome according to the three main educational backgrounds associated with mid-skilled workers (high school diploma; associate’s degree or some college; or no degree). Based on the latest available U.S. Census Bureau data. The values represent 2023 percentages.

This is how the metro areas stacked up in this preliminary stage:

While the initial ranking encompasses eight different indicators, our metro-level analysis focuses on five of them to identify patterns in how mid-skill labor is integrated and what career advancement prospects workers can look forward to in these places.

First, we look at median wage growth for mid-skill jobs between 2014 and 2024 as a reference point for the types of earnings that professionals can expect working in each metro area. Next, job-to-job flow rates measure how “locked-in” workers within a market are or how likely they are to switch jobs. We also look at the opportunity gap, which we defined as the difference between the percentage of high-paying job titles available and the percentage of people in those seats. For instance, entries with a wide opportunity gap point to labor markets in which there are a variety of occupations that provide higher wages, but only a few of these actually employ a significant number of people within the given workforce.

Finally, we also took into consideration mid-skill labor density, or the total footprint of mid-skill workers within each entry’s workforce. The table below displays the performances of all metropolitan areas with more than 1 million residents across the set of metrics included in this study, including the ranking-wide average for each indicator to provide a better reference point.

Mid-Skill Jobs Definition

Based on labor market standards, mid-skill occupations are defined by the level of educational attainment typically required for entry into the field. These roles generally sit between entry-level positions requiring no formal education and high-skill roles that necessitate a bachelor’s degree or higher.

According to the criteria provided by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, mid-skill employment includes positions where the typical entry-level requirement is:

• a high-school diploma or equivalent
• an associate’s degree
• some college, but no degree

This category often encompasses a broad range of technical and specialized roles — such as those in advanced manufacturing, health care support and logistics — where specialized training or vocational certification is more critical than a traditional, four-year academic degree.