July 2026 Industrial Report: Slower EV Sales Push Manufacturers to Rethink Major Investments

Key Takeaways:

• Despite recent challenges faced by players within the EV manufacturing industry, the sector’s prospects remain positive across a more realistic, extended timeline.
• Rent growth has slowed as double-digit rent increases are becoming the exception, rather than the rule.
• 5 million square feet of industrial space is actively under construction nationwide with Atlanta among the standouts (18.5 million square feet).
• The Fremont, Calif., submarket was the primary force behind the Bay Area’s price recovery as six properties were sold for a total of $402.5 million, or an average of $447 per square foot.

Regional Highlights:

• Inland Empire, Calif., rents climb to $12.42 per square foot, but nearby Orange County remains most expensive industrial market at $17.86 per square foot.
• Year-to-date industrial sales in Chicago went up 39% in June, currently totaling $2.1 billion.
• Memphis, Tenn., vacancies reach 10% after a 250-basis-point (bps) year-over-year (Y-o-Y) drop as the market continues to provide the lowest industrial leases within the South.
• New Jersey industrial pipeline hits 8.8 million square feet following 24% month-over-month (M-o-M) increase.

Trends & Industry News

Slowing Down, Not Stopping: How Infrastructure Growth Keeps Long-Term Adoption Alive

Although the shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) remains underway, its pace has slowed compared to initial projections, diluting the effect of what was anticipated to be a key driver of industrial demand.

This shortfall relative to high expectations stems from a combination of economic and policy-related factors. Specifically, automakers heavily prioritized high-priced luxury models over affordable choices, while range anxiety persisted given the context of a still-developing charging network. At the same time, federal policies created additional headwinds: A sharp Q4 sales drop followed the early expiration of the federal EV tax credit, while auto manufacturing also faced tariff-related uncertainty and proposed rollbacks to fuel-efficiency standards, which threatened to reshape economics for both buyers and manufacturers.

As a result, EV manufacturing ventures have had to recalibrate. Out of nearly $200 billion in EV manufacturing investments announced between August 2022 (following the Inflation Reduction Act) and late 2024, several projects now face delays, cancellations or changes in scope.

One such example was Panasonic’s 4.7-million-square-foot industrial space in DeSoto, Kan., where the company announced in June that a portion of its production would pivot toward data center batteries. Similarly, Ford’s BlueOval City Project in Tennessee was initially intended for electric truck production, but following repeated postponements, Ford announced that it would produce gas-powered trucks at the site, instead.

Despite these setbacks, positive developments persist — most notably in charging infrastructure, which expanded even amidst the EV sales slump. To that end, fast charger installations jumped 30% from 2024 to 2025 with more than 18,000 units added nationwide. Crucially, Walmart has started installing fast chargers across its neighborhood markets and supercenters. With dozens of locations already online and hundreds more in the planning and permitting stages, Walmart’s network could dramatically boost suburban and rural charging availability, considering that roughly 90% of the U.S. population resides within 10 miles of one of its stores.

“Adjustments in the push for mass adoption are in the making, whether that is lessening the financial point of entry for full EV offerings or shifting some of the existing technology to support hybrid models that could entice new buyers. The long-term industrial manufacturing upside remains; however, a realistic timeline will need to be extended.”

Peter Kolaczynski, Director, Yardi Research

Rents & Occupancy

National Industrial Rent Growth Decelerates as Vacancy Rates Plateau

The nationwide average for in-place industrial rents reached $9.20 per square foot in June, reflecting an $.08-cent bump from the month prior and a 5.3% Y-o-Y increase. Despite this overall gain, the moderation of in-place rent growth has affected almost every market across the country.

That said, the period of double-digit rent increases has largely ended, driven by negotiation power shifting toward occupiers and the ongoing absorption of new inventory: While eight distinct markets recorded in-place rent growth of at least 7% a year ago, only three achieved that threshold in June 2026 — California’s Inland Empire at 8.4%, Atlanta at 8.1% and Miami at 7.1%.

Concurrently, the national industrial vacancy rate held relatively stable, landing at 9.1% in June, which represents a minimal, 10-bps uptick during the preceding 12 months. Vacancy rates have also generally flattened since last summer after benefiting from a combination of reduced construction deliveries and normalized occupier demand.

Meanwhile, in-place rents for leases signed during the previous 12 months averaged $10.02 per square foot, which is $.82 above the overall national average for all leases. Notably, as occupiers have gained leverage in negotiations, the premium paid for a new lease has steadily contracted in recent years, though significant gaps between new lease rates and market averages remain in certain regions.

For example, throughout the last 12 months, Miami recorded the largest gap with new leases running $3.26 per square foot higher than the market average. The only other markets featuring spreads above $2 per square foot were Nashville, Tenn. ($2.92 higher); Bridgeport, Conn. ($2.63); Dallas ($2.17); and California’s Bay Area ($2.15). This also reflects a major shift compared to recent history. One year ago, the national average premium for a new lease stood at $1.58 per square foot with 14 of the top 30 markets registering a spread of more than $2 per square foot, including five that surpassed $3.

Supply

Warehouse Construction Makes a Comeback in Atlanta

At present, 399.5 million square feet of industrial space is actively under construction nationwide, representing 1.9% of total stock. Within this broader landscape, Atlanta is seeing a renewed surge in warehouse development, reinforcing its position as a major logistics hub following a temporary lull.

Developers originally pulled back after a massive wave of construction between 2019 and 2022, which saw 38.7 million square feet of warehouse and distribution starts. Consequently, combined starts for 2023 and 2024 dropped to just 9.2 million square feet with data centers eclipsing warehouse and distribution space as the top industrial sector by square footage in 2024. However, warehouse projects have rebounded significantly since early last year. Yardi Matrix logged 8 million square feet of warehouse and distribution starts in 2025 alongside another 5.3 million square feet initiated during the first half of 2026.

This development comeback is largely propelled by the ongoing growth of the River Park E-commerce Center, a massive, 2,000-acre industrial park situated south of Atlanta in Jackson, Ga. Having already completed 5.3 million square feet occupied by high-profile tenants such as Procter & Gamble; Amazon Web Services; and the State of Georgia, the project has kicked off construction on three more buildings in the last year, adding a combined 3.3 million square feet to the market.

Transactions

Bay Area Industrial Valuations Rebound as Fremont, Calif., Manufacturing Transactions Drive Growth

Nationwide, industrial real estate transactions logged by Yardi Matrix reached $40.7 billion during the first half of the year with assets selling at an average price of $141 per square foot.

Against this national backdrop, California’s Bay Area saw a strong recovery in industrial property pricing during 2026 after bouncing back from a significant dip in the preceding year. More precisely, industrial sales in the Bay Area averaged $224 per square foot in 2025 — representing a 30% drop from 2024 levels — before climbing back up to $318 per square foot in 2026. This recovery brings local pricing roughly back in line with the market averages recorded across both 2023 and 2024.

The primary force behind the Bay Area’s price recovery is the Fremont, Calif., submarket, where six properties comprising approximately 900,000 square feet were sold for a total of $402.5 million, which comes out to an average of $447 per square foot.

In this case, manufacturing facilities accounted for two of the submarket’s most expensive deals of the year. In one transaction, Clarion Partners acquired Milmont Industrial — a 267,000-square-foot manufacturing building in Fremont that’s 100% leased to Tesla — for $132.3 million, or an average of $495 per square foot. A few miles north along Highway 880, electronics manufacturer Wislab EMS purchased its headquarters and production site at 4211 Starboard Drive from LaSalle for $61 million, averaging $470 per square foot.

Western Markets

Inland Empire, Calif., Industrial Rents Rise 8.4% Y-o-Y to $12.42 Per Square Foot

The Central Valley industrial pipeline in California grew by 143% Y-o-Y — the most significant increase during that period across Western markets — to reach 7.9 million square feet in June. Here, some of the most significant projects under development include Scannell Westgate Industrial Center, an 800,000-square-foot warehouse in west Fresno, Calif., that recently broke ground and will be anchored by Amazon, as well as Building 2 of the TriPoint Logistics Center — a massive industrial space in Lathrop, Calif., that’s part of a project that will span 4.5 million square feet upon completion. The Central Valley also featured the largest month-over-month increase in construction activity across the region at 32%. It’s followed by Phoenix (21%), which continues to lead in terms of overall output (30 million square feet).

Not to be outdone, Seattle stood out as the Western market with the largest month-over-month industrial sales increase (109%) with $1.7 billion worth of assets changing hands this year. Importantly, a couple of the largest transactions that took place in the market during the previous month were for distressed properties, namely the two Chapter Buildings in the city’s U-District. Bank OZK took ownership of the complex via a deed in lieu of foreclosure, later selling for $130 million after developers Portman Holdings and Touchstone defaulted on their loan. Otherwise, year-to-date average prices for industrial spaces in Seattle rose to $256 per square foot in June, following a 32% M-o-M increase.

At $17.86 per square foot, asking rates for warehouses and industrial spaces in Orange County remain the highest not just across the region, but nationally, as well. In fact, in a nationwide top five of the most expensive rents, Miami is the only market outside of the Western states that makes the cut, squeezed between the likes of Los Angeles, California’s Bay Area and Seattle. Additionally, rents in Inland Empire, Calif., went up 8.4% in the last 12 months to reach $12.42 per square foot with a $.30-cent premium on new leases compared to in-place agreements.

As you might expect, the most significant rise in new lease premiums across Western markets took place in the Bay Area, where recently signed deals come at a $2.15 premium compared to older rents for an average rate of $14.85 per square foot.

At the same time, Seattle; Portland, Ore.; and Central Valley, Calif., recorded the steepest year-over-year increases in vacancies across Western markets. More precisely, vacancy rates for industrial spaces in Portland, Ore., reached 11.7% following a 450-bps surge, while vacancies in the Valley climbed 420 bps Y-o-Y to 14.6% in June. Likewise, Phoenix saw a 260-bps M-o-M rise in its industrial vacancies to bring its rate (9.3%) just above the nationwide average, which stands at 9.1%.

Midwestern Markets

Chicago Reaches $2.1 Billion in Year-To-Date Industrial Sales

Vacancies for industrial spaces in Chicago went up by 100 bps compared to the previous month (from 9.9% to 10.9%). However, on a year-over-year basis, the market actually reduced its vacancy rate by 140 bps, similar to Columbus, Ohio (where average vacancies fell 170 bps from 10.9% to 9.2%). In the same way, Kansas City, Mo., vacancies dipped slightly compared to the previous month, although rates in this market have consistently been some of the lowest nationally.

As a matter of fact, rent growth has been relatively modest across the Midwest in the last 12 months when compared to markets in the South and Northeast. For instance, asking rates for industrial spaces in Detroit and St. Louis increased by less than 3% to $7.60 and $5.53 per square foot, respectively. The two markets also boasted the highest month-over-month upticks in their average asking prices within the region — 3.4% for Detroit and 2.2% in St. Louis.

Further east, the pipeline in Columbus, Ohio, currently stands at 13.6 million square feet after recording a 124% Y-o-Y jump with projects under construction currently making up roughly 4% of stock. In particular, Intel’s 2.5-million-square-foot Ohio One in Johnstown, Ohio, and the 1.1-million-square-foot Park 762 in Lockbourne, Ohio, are two of the largest Columbus industrial spaces undergoing construction. Plus, several other projects just below the 1-million-square-foot mark are expected to hit the market in 2026 and 2027 — among them, Arsenal-1, the first phase of a multi-building manufacturing complex, as well as the 700,000-square-foot, EdgeConneX-owned 2465 Clover Valley Road.

Even so, in terms of month-over-month growth, Chicago stood out after expanding its pipeline by 23% from 11.7 million to 14.6 million square feet of space under construction. Year-to-date sales in Chicago totaled 2.1 billion in June to mark a 39% M-o-M increase with average prices of $95 per square foot.

However, Kansas City, Mo., and Minnesota’s Twin Cities witnessed the most significant jumps in transactions for industrial properties in June (55% and 53%, respectively). In this case, Real Capital Solutions paid $34 million for 3701 Wayzata Blvd., a 313,057-square-foot industrial space in Minneapolis’ St. Louis Park suburb, while the most notable deals in Kansas City included the sale of two properties in VanTrust Real Estate’s portfolio to Sealy & Co. and MDH Partners for $49 million and $31.7 million, respectively.

Southern Markets

Memphis, Tenn., Industrial Vacancy Drops 250 bps Y-o-Y to 10%

In terms of year-to-date sales, Atlanta and Houston had the highest year-over-year increases in the region at 178% and 160%, respectively, both with totals above the $1-billion threshold. But, in terms of sales prices, Baltimore recorded an 11% uptick to reach $141 per square foot for the second-highest within the region behind Charlotte, N.C.’s $146 per square foot. Meanwhile, Nashville, Tenn., and Tampa, Fla., experienced double-digit decreases to bring their respective year-to-date price per square foot to $118 and $138, respectively.

Vacancy rates for industrial spaces in Memphis stood at 10% in June, down 250 bps Y-o-Y  and 80 bps compared to the previous month. Baltimore vacancies also decreased by 70 bps M-o-M to 9.6%, while Nashville, Tenn.; Houston; Dallas; and Atlanta maintained rates below the 9.1% national average.

Among top U.S. industrial markets, only Inland Empire, Calif.’s 8.4% had a higher percentage increase in a 12-month period than Atlanta, the South’s leader for this metric at 8.1%. Nevertheless, as it stands, lease rates for industrial spaces in Atlanta ($6.95), along with those in Memphis, Tenn. ($4.49), are some of the most affordable out there, along with several Midwestern markets — such as Cincinnati ($5.72) and Indianapolis ($5.53). For comparison, Nashville, Tenn., and Dallas — where the asking rate for industrial rents hovered around the $7 mark — boasted some of the highest lease spreads among major U.S. markets with a nearly $3 premium on newly signed agreements for Nashville, Tenn., industrial spaces and a $2 premium for properties in Dallas.

Then, looking at construction activity within the region, Atlanta draws our attention once again after expanding its industrial pipeline by 32% M-o-M to a total of 18.4 million square feet. It ranks third behind Houston (20 million square feet) and Dallas (31 million square feet) with projects currently under construction representing 3.1% of its inventory. Major projects include two buildings in Fayetteville, Ga., at the QTS Atlanta 2 Data Center Campus for a total of 880,000 square feet, as well as the 319,290-square-foot Peachtree Industrial Commerce Center in Buford, Ga.

Northeastern Markets

New Jersey Industrial Construction Pipeline Reaches 8.8 Million Square Feet After 24% Monthly Growth

Rents for warehouses and industrial spaces in New Jersey went up 6% in the last 12 months with average rates in June reaching $12.80 per square foot. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Philadelphia’s 4.8% growth during the same period still left it short of the national average at $8.88 per square foot. Otherwise, the situation remains unchanged in terms of lease spreads, with Bridgeport, Conn., and Boston industrial spaces claiming the highest premiums for new rents in the region.

Here again, industrial development continued swiftly across the region with expansion in all but one of the Northeastern markets. Specifically, New Jersey’s pipeline hit 8.8 million square feet with the addition of the first 808,510-square-foot building of Central 9 Logistics Park in Old Bridge, N.J., to the market’s under-construction inventory for a 24% bump compared to the previous month. Year-over-year, Bridgeport led the regional ranking for pipeline expansion with 233%.

Further inland, year-to-date sales for Philadelphia industrial and warehouse spaces broke the $1-billion mark in June with average prices at $151 per square foot. Notably,  Philadelphia’s year-over-year trading volume (166%) has increased more than that of any other Northeastern market. That said, New Jersey continues to lead the region with $1.6 billion worth of industrial assets traded to date. Then, in third place, Boston’s sales this year totaled $695 million with an average price of $224 per square foot following an 11% uptick compared to the previous month.

Back in Philadelphia, vacancies crept up by 90 bps M-o-M and are currently just under 10%. Year-over-year, the market recorded a 250-bps increase for the most significant within the region. It was followed by Boston’s 100-bps rise.

Economic Indicators

Warehousing Employment Holds Steady Amid Automation Push & Tariff Uncertainties

Between January and June, the warehousing and storage labor sector added more than 20,000 jobs — a 1.1% increase according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data — though these modest recent gains have failed to offset losses sustained in 2025. Additionally, employment in the sector remains down by 30,000 workers compared to February 2025 levels, as well as nearly 90,000 workers below its all-time peak in March 2022. Even with minor fluctuations, overall sector workforce levels have stayed relatively steady since late 2022, hovering consistently between 1.8 and 1.9 million employees.

This prolonged period of flat warehouse employment has been driven by a couple of key factors. First, logistics companies have increasingly adopted automation technology, though these systems have primarily served to complement human staff, rather than replace them outright. Second, widespread tariff uncertainty defined much of the industrial market last year, causing companies to pause hiring initiatives and delay expansion plans.

Methodology

The monthly CommercialCafe national industrial real estate report considers data recorded throughout the course of 12 months and tracks top U.S. industrial markets with a focus on average rents; vacancies (including subleases, but excluding owner-occupied properties); deals closed; pipeline yield; forecasts; and the economic indicators most relevant to the performance of the industrial sector. Listing rate and occupancy information was based on Yardi Research data.

• Average Rents: Provided by Yardi Market Expert, a cutting-edge service that uses anonymized and aggregated data from other Yardi platforms to provide the most accurate rental and expense information available.

• Vacancy: The total square feet vacant in a market, including subleases, divided by the total square feet of industrial space in that market. Owner-occupied buildings are not included in vacancy calculations.

Stages of the supply pipeline: 

• Planned: Buildings that are currently in the process of acquiring zoning approval and permits, but have not yet begun construction.

• Under Construction: Buildings for which construction and excavation have begun.

Sales volume and price-per-square-foot calculations for portfolio transactions or those with unpublished dollar values are estimated using sales comps based on similar sales in the market and submarket; use type; location and asset ratings; sale date; and property size.

Year-to-date metrics and data include the time period between January 1 of the current year through the month prior to publishing the report.

Market boundaries in the CommercialCafe industrial report coincide with those defined by the CommercialCafe Markets Map and may differ from regional boundaries defined by other sources.

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